single wait or kanchan wait??

Dropping one sequence is 7 pairs

Answer

safer

Dangerous

Commentary

Dropping one sequence is 7 pairs

It's been a while since I've done any river reading.

It's almost all in the title, but this hand is dropping 5 6 7 and one element. 

This is  a sign of 7 pairs.

n other hands, one element is rarely discarded from the hand, except in flash.

So North is the most dangerous.

And In rules with red dora, it is quite common to wait for 5.

But, waiting on 5 in 7 pairs is not recommended.

In this hand

It's been a while since I've done any river reading.

How to discard Penchan

 

Answer

Commentary

How to discard Penchan

The choice was between Penchan and Kanchan, and everyone may choice to dropp Penchan.

So, which should you discard first, 8 or 9??

The theory is to discard the dangerous tile first, but in this case, you had better to discard 8 first.

The reason for this is the form when the 6 is drawn.

The following is the form when 6 is drawn, and this form is "strong" with a lot of variation. In this case, it is rather 6 8 that should be discarded

.

This is a bit similar to the previous article, but to summarize

when dropping a penchan, imagine a form with 4 and 6, and then discard!

Priorities of discarding Penchan

 

Answer

Commentary

Priorities of discarding Penchan

In the first game of East, it is double East, an opportunity hand.

In the first game of East, it is double East, an opportunity hand.

Even if the hand becomes ready hand, there is a high possibility that it will only be waiting for Penchan.

In this case, I would like to drop the penchan and look to  multi-wating around 6p (preferably dora) or by drawing Sozu.

So which penchan should be dropped??

In Wanzu, there are only 1 valid tiles (3m), but in Pinzu, there is RyanKan by drawing 4.

Dropping the Penchan also has its own priorities.

It's a small detail, but it's worth remembering.

7 pairs is the last card.

 

Answer

Commentary

7 pairs is the last card

Basically, it is a special role that exists as the last hop.

 It is a special role that allows you to make Haneman (Riichi, self draw, 7 pairs, dora x 2) with any hand.

However, you need to remember that the probability of that winning rate is extremely low.

The occurrence rate in Tenhou is only 2%.

If you have another role to aim for, don't hesitate to prioritize that one.

In this case, it is the valuable tile x 2.

With the same 2 roles, the winning ratio will increase overwhelmingly.

If 3s is not a dora, then 3m or 5s for all ttriplets is also possible.

However, I don't look to discard Dora here.

Which is more advantageous, 4 or 6?

If you discard the 6, you won't be able to use it when you draw a dora.

34566 → 33456

Always keep in mind the change from 34566 to 33456.

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The city has been completely transformed into Halloween.

But the weather is great and it's still hot in Japan.

Today I'm wearing short sleeves and eating a pumpkin pie from Halofin.

Answer

②Concealed

Commentary

In the last article, I said that if you wait  Ryanmen, you should  call for following Riichi basically.

How about this case ??

Using the statistical possibliity from the last article, let's calculate the rough expected value.

Right side player has 5 dora. Hanneman is confirmed　(Riichi ＋Dora 5).

Following Riichi in the 14th round, the deal in ratio is approximately 15%.

Expected value of Deal in is roughly 13,000 (Haneman + Riichi fee) x 15%＝1950.

Win ratio is roughly 45% x 2700 points (average score for Riichi only in case of hided dora x 3) is 1215.

The rest is the probability of your opponent's self-draw x 3000 or 4000, but this can vary greatly depending on how your opponent waits.

If the opponent wait for Ryanmen , the self drawing probability is 17%, so the probability is approximately 4000 (30% chance of having a concealed dora x 3, which means there is at least one concealed dora) x 17%,= 680.

In addition, this hand has a large number of safty tiles for the Riichi, so we can decide that fold is better for this hand.

However, 

① If you really don't want to be won by the right side player.

② I don't have a safety tile.

If you have such conditions, it is acceptable to go to Riichi even in such an extreme situation.

Even if you can see Dora 5, the difference in numbers is about this much, so you can see how strong Ryanmen following Riichi is. 

Ryanmen ready hand is following Riichi in any situation.

 

Answer

①Riichi

Commentary

Ryanmen ready hand is following Riichi in any situation

The theory of flat hand is always Riichi, but what if another player has already called Riichi first??

With or without a flat hand, following Riichi is the rule for Ryangmen ready hand.

The figure below shows the win ratio and deal in ratio of following Riichi.

The approximate win ratio is always three times the deal in ratio, regardless of the round.

In this case, in particular, I am the dealer, and dealer's score is always 1.5 times higher.

However, even if the player who Riichi'd first is the dealer, the basic rule is following Riichi.

This is because there is an overwhelmingly high possibility that you will win.