Calculating Expected Value

 

Answer

Calculating Expected Value

Expected value is calculated by score × winning probability.

This hand, discarding 2m is fix "Frat hand"  " All simples" "Triple sequences" but double sided waiting.

Discarding 5m is fix "flat hand" only, but triple sided waiting.

Which is the better option ??  

The winning probability of double sided wait (Ryanmen) is about 70%.

Simplified expected value  is about 70% × 8000 =5600

And that of triple sided wait is about 80%.

Simplified expected value  is about 80% × （1000×1/3（1m)＋2000×2/3（4 7m))=1500

The principle is to focus the score

Basically, it is too difficult to double the winning probability.

So if you fix rising one more the role (Yaku), you should fix the role which make your hand's score 

double.

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I tried pasta in Pizza KOZOU where I have often eaten Pizza.

Vongore Bianco is my favorite taste.

Very tasty but I prefer Pizza in this restaurant.